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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Russia, Georgia, and the Wisdom of Crowds


I intended to write this awhile back, but seeing as this is an event that will be topical for some time, now is as good a time as any. Also, I wanted to share a link http://antiwar.com/pat/index_pat.html .... there ain't much good to say about Pat Buchanan but I find myself agreeing with his foreign policy sometimes.. now if only he could get the domestic right.

First my thoughts on the conflict as a whole. I think it's funny how one-sided the coverage has been so far. Editors and journalists are just aching for a "new Cold War" angle. They want to create a narrative where the big bad Soviet Un- I mean Russia invades and crushes a fledgling, pro-western democracy just as it is beginning to emerge from its infancy.
The problem with actual stories are that they are never so black and white, and this scenario is no different. Russia is definitely guilty of some things- they went too far in their own invasion while using the Georgians invasion of South Ossetia as reason to teach Georgia (and perhaps the United States) a lesson. A lesson about trying to join NATO, for cozying up to the US, for forgetting that they are located on the southern border of Russia and not southern France. But Georgia is guilty too, of heavy-handed actions in a semi-autonomous province with plenty of people carrying Russian passports, of picking a fight with a much larger adversary who it had no business tangling with. And most of all, it is guilty of letting the US gas it's head up, thinking that it's a real ally and going on dangerous adventures because Saakashvili KNEW that we'd be there to pick up the pieces. There is no way we were going to protect Georgia other than with words, not with our currently overextended military. Georgia gambled, using our words as collateral but found out there was nothing backing them. Instead, we put out the propaganda machine, making it seem like there was no reason for the conflict or that it just appeared out of nowhere. Now the US and Russia are in a war of words over essentially a province of less than 100,000.

In a realpolitik sense, we had to know that the Russians would respond in this manner. In many ways our actions have told Russia what we think of her. Just look at our plans for missile defense in Poland and Ukraine, our plans to gain access to vital oil supplies in and around the Caucasus, in essence our plans to increasingly hem in Russia to its south and west. Imagine if China were to build missile defense bases in Mexico and the Caribbean. The fact that these neo-cons do not see how the world is increasingly moving away from the 90's world of uni-polarity is the true downfall in their foreign policy. Our policy towards Russia has been to treat her like she is irrelevant. Now that Russia has gotten a chance to flex its muscles once again in the region, nothing, not our threats over dismissal from the G-8, and certainly not our contradictory words will get her to backdown.
What's even more dismaying than our mistakes in foreign policy, however, is the complete "tow the line" attitude set up by the mainstream media. I understand the government putting out the message that they are. Regardless of how they truly feel (and I can imagine that they were not too happy with Saakashvili going ahead with his plans) they have to look out for their self-interest and the interest of someone they call their ally. My problem is that the MSM is so unquestioning in its reporting- they buy so completely into the narrative presented by the government. It's been talked about endlessly by much better commentators (Glenn Greenwald for salon.com in particular, if you ever get a chance you should read his thoughtful, logical, and at times transcedent blog), but when you have media that is owned overwhelmingly by the same corporate interests, journalists so concered about becoming stars/editors, and so concerned about being in the loop, getting the latest exclusive, and being loved by the very people they are supposed to be reporting on, well, there's gonna be problems when it comes time for true investigative reporting and thoughtful analysis.

A lot of "real journalists" badmouth blogs and message boards because they supposedly lower the discourse, and the people who write on them are not trained in journalism, so how can they possibly report the news. And yet, everytime I want good analysis on world events, sports, domestic policy, discussions of the city council, or really anything I go to blogs or message boards. Part of it is because of the convenience, but in my opinion, the alternative media and the non-professionals do a much better job of reporting and giving logical opinions on the particular subject of interests. I love lurking on message boards, because, a few smart-ass internet thugs aside, I love to read the astounding intelligence which some people have on particular subjects. The Russia-Georgia conflict is no exception. I knew some things about the history of South Ossetia and Georgia after the Cold War, but by reading other people who pay attention to history and who cast a critical eye towards information gleaned from a myriad of sources I've learned a great deal more.
I've gained so much knowledge from reading the message boards of salon.com, joeposnanski.com, okayplayer.com, just to name a few. In many instances, I've learned more about history and business from years of reading message boards than I did in college. The average American often times gets a bad rap (and I'll be the first person to make a joke more often than not) but the informed crowd, the type that reads the news, looks for their news in many sources, goes to be the studio audience for Who Wants to be a Millionaire, is what keeps a democracy flourishing. And just like Who Wants to be a Millionaire, they'll more often than not come up with the right answer. That's whats so refreshing about the alternative outlets for news and analysis and what's so depressing about the increasingly isolated and consolidated mainstream media who now have to rely solely on access and not their ability for logical analysis in order to remain relevant.

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