Stuck in a conference call at 9 at night; it is what's preventing me from going home. Oh God I hate conference calls! I'm currently having a debate in my mind about whether conference calls are more boring than they are useless, or more useless than they are boring. I cannot describe it in specifics but man I cannot wait until this is over so I can. Right now though, I'm really happy that I learned to type in sixth grade so I can look like I'm paying attention while I'm steadily typing on my blog. More importantly, I get to talk about something that is actually important, the World Series matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Philadelphia Phillies. I'll do a classic breakdown by position and by team aggregates for the season. Just so you know ahead of time, the Philadelphia Phillies are my second favorite team and the 1993 Phillies are one my all-time favorite single season teams so I am rooting for them in this series. It will only slightly effect my analysis.
Catcher
TB-Dioner Navarro (102; 35.7%) PHI-Carlos Ruiz (62; 17.7%)
Big advantage for Tampa Bay. Navarro is a league average hitter, which is great for a catcher and led all qualifying catchers in caught stealing percentage. Ruiz is a terrible hitter and had one of the lowest csp of all catchers. Going forward, Navarro has a chanc to be an all-star. He was a highly regarded prospect with the Yankees and Dodgers and he seems to have put it all together with the Rays. Plus he's still only 24. Ruiz on the other hand, will start for 2 more years before he moves to his more natural position, backup.
First Base
TB- Carlos Pena (132; .729; 44) PHI- Ryan Howard (123; .743; 32)
Rating from this season alone it would be a push or even a slight advantage for Carlos Pena. Ryan Howard finished incredibly strong though and he has a better overall track record. Overall, I will give this one to the Phillies first baseman because of that track record. Pena and Howard are actually similar players- both are slow as molasses in January, both have good/great patience that's added by their tremendous power strokes. Both are incredibly strikeout prone and both are very susceptible to left handed pitching. Defense is a wash, with Pena having more range because he's slightly faster. Like Navarro, Pena was a HIGHLY regarded prospect who was pilfered from Texas by Oakland. He also comes across as highly intelligent; I loved reading his blog on MLB.com. He was good with Detroit and then flamed out with the Red Sox. Last year, he was close to being MVP. Howard is from St. Louis (a plus) and has actually won an MVP. He's been steadily going down in all his key stats though so that is something to watch for.
Second Base
TB- Akinori Iwamura (96; .787; 44) PHI- Chase Utley (133; .839; 66)
Chase Utley is so much better than Iwamura it's not even funny. It's rare for a player to be the best offensive and defensive player at their position; Utley is unquestionably the best offensive second baseman and I'd argue that he's also the best defensive. He's surehanded and has ungodly range, no mean feat. He easily outdistances Iwamura in out of zone plays and Iwamura has a HIGH OOZ. Iwamura is a good glove who brings a decent stick and good speed, nothing wrong with that. But Utley is a perennial MVP candidate and this generations Ryne Sandberg with even more power.
Third Base
TB- Evan Longoria (130; .731; 43) PHI- Pedro Feliz (80; .714; 27)
Just about as lopsided as the second base matchup; a huge win for the Rays. Longoria has a bright future ahead of him, there aren't too many 22 year old third baseman who post a 130 OPS+ and don't go to the Hall of Fame. Pedro Feliz was never a good hitter but has consistently been one of the top defensive third baseman in all of baseball and with a serviceable bat that meant he could play everyday. His defensive stats are way down this year, it could be a fluke, or he could have hit a wall at 33. If it's the latter, this should be his last year as a starter as he simply does not have the bat to warrant extended playing time without a gold glove. Since he was the best third baseman last year though, I guess he's earned one more chance. Anyway, big advantage to the team with the future HOF as their starter.
Shortstop
TB- Jason Bartlett (85; .807; 44) PHI- Jimmy Rollins (101; .849; 57)
Advantage Philadelphia. He didn’t have the numbers from his career year, but Jimmy Rollins still blows Bartlett away with the bat. Both hitters have good defensive reputations; the numbers point to Rollins being better but I’d call their defense a wash.
As another aside, Jimmy Rollins is from Oakland. It seems to me that Oakland and St. Louis are the only two cities with sizable black baseball playing populations. We should probably see why the baseball tradition still succeeds in Oakland and try to apply that to other places around the country. This is going to be an extended post in the very near future.
Left Field
TB- Carl Crawford (91; .911; 47) PHI- Pat Burrell (123; .829; 46)
Philadelphia has a very slight advantage because of Burrell’s bat and his okay glove. Crawford had a down year with the bat, but he also had a broken finger which caused him to miss significant playing time. As a plus though, Crawford is far and away the best left fielder in the game and has been for several years. His defense and speed narrows the gap considerably, to the point where I’d almost call it a wash. I may be stretching it a little, but this match up represents a kind of dichotomy. Crawford is the kind of player baseball needs to cultivate more if it wants to be seen as exciting. He’s fast, he plays good defense, hits plenty of triples, puts the ball in play, and always looks like he’s having fun. Burrell, while not as droll as JD Drew, is slow, hits home runs, plays mediocre defense, strikes out a ton, draws a lot of walks, and seems like he’s sitting in front of excel spreadsheet when he plays. Burrell’s bat is WAY more valuable, but Crawford just seems more valuable because he always looks like he’s doing something, always looks like he’s playing hard. From a managerial, winning games perspective, players like Burrell (and Adam Dunn, and Jack Cust) are the kind of bats you want. From an entertainment perspective?
Center Field
TB- BJ Upton (111; .921; 87) PHI- Shane Victorino (105; .913; 83)
Going strictly by regular season numbers this would be a wash both offensively and defensively with maybe a slight advantage to Upton. After this postseason though? Upton has nearly doubled his home run output having seemingly rediscovered his power stroke instantaneously; we may remember the 2008 playoffs as his official coming out party. Joe Posnanski likened BJ Upton to a young Eric Davis- I don’t remember a young Eric Davis, shoot I barely remember the old one, but I wish I’d seen him if he was as exciting as BJ Upton. Now if we could get him over the penchant for laziness…. Oh yeah, Shane Victorino- he’s a speedy centerfielder with good defense, a rat face, and a taste for spam. He’d annoy me if he was on another team, but on the Phillies I like him.
Right Field
TB- Gabe Gross (99; .943; 33) PHI- Jayson Werth (119; .898; 37)
Werth has a much better bat, Gross is a much better defender. Rightfield defense is not that important. Advantage Philly. Gross should split time with Rocco Baldelli, which will narrow the offensive gap.
Starting Pitching
TB- Jason Shields (122) PHI- Cole Hamels (145)
Scott Kazmir (125) Jamie Moyer (120)
Matt Garza (118) Brett Myers (98)
Andy Sonnanstine (100) Joe Blanton (106)
The top two starters from both teams match up well, with Hamels and Garza both winning their respective LCS MVP awards. I like Tampa Bay’s depth more, and I really like the fact that Kazmir gets to face Utley and Howard and switch around Jimmy Rollins. Playoff series hinge on hot pitchers though so depth means much less than it does in the regular season. With that being said, the dropoff from 1 to 3 for the Phillies means that they need stellar performances from Hamels (I’d think about starting him three times). I like Jamie Moyer in this series; he should be more effective against a young team. I also love how set up the Rays are for years. Slight advantage to Tampa Bay.
Bullpen
TB- Dan Wheeler; JP Howell; Grant Balfour; Chad Bradford; David Price
PHI- Brad Lidge; JC Romero; Ryan Madsen; Chad Durbin; Clay Condrey
Philadelphia has a superb bullpen anchored by post-Pujols Brad Lidge. They’re right handed heavy, but that should not be too big of a problem against the Rays; and Romero is definitely more than a LOOGY. All of the primary members of the bullpen have ERA+’s over 130. Tampa Bay HAS to score early against the Phillies. Tampa Bay’s bullpen on the other hand is very shaky at times; Wheeler looked positively petrified in both Game 5 and Game 7, Balfour has lost the trust of Madden, Howell has had a rough go of it, and I’d have a hard time trusting Bradford for more than two batters. The Rays secret weapon however, is David Price, last year’s number one pick and the savior in Game 7. A lefty with a 96mph fastball and a mid-to-high 80’s slider will give anyone fits. We should see him face the heart of the order in crucial situations. I am proud to say that I was at his debut in Yankee Stadium- he’s gonna be special. Overall though, this is a big advantage for the Phillies.
Bench
TB- Cliff Floyd; Eric Hinske, Rocco Baldelli, Willy Aybar; Ben Zobrist
PHI- Geoff Jenkins; So Taguchi; Gene Dobbs; Matt Stairs; Chris Coste
Both teams have solid benches, for Tampa Bay Floyd, Hinske, and Baldelli have all been all-stars and Aybar has been very good this postseason. For Philly, Jenkins, Taguchi, and Stars have all been solid players. Both benches supply power, Stairs in particular is dangerous against righties. The difference, I think, is in Baldelli because of his speed and defense in short bursts (Baldelli has a mitochondrial disease which saps him of his energy so he cannot usually play a full game). Overall, because of its versatility, Tampa’s bench has the advantage.
Other Key Indicators
Batter VORP
TB- 159
PHI- 228
Pitcher VORP
TB- 291
PHI- 226
Defensive Efficiency
TB- .710
PHI- .696
This is a very evenly matched series. On an individual player level, I like the Phillies in this series; if their stars perform to their highest capabilities (particularly Cole Hamels) I think they win. They are better at more individual positions, have a lights-out bullpen, and have a much more balanced team. Tampa Bay leans heavily on their pitching and defense; they have a much harder time scoring runs in bunches, although Upton’s emergence and the Boston series has changed that somewhat. A lot of their pitching advantage, however, comes from their depth, which does not matter as much in this series. Overall, I think that Hamels will handle Tampa Bay nicely, and Moyer will give them fits. Games not started by those two I think are wins for the Rays. My prediction is Philadelphia in a classic 7 games. Hamels is again the MVP and Philadelphia gets their first championship in any sport since 1983. Don’t fret Tampa, you will have plenty more opportunities in the near future.
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