The above is only a figurative statement and alas, it is not even mine but one I borrowed from Craig Calcaterra, the author of the superb baseball and occasionaly other stuff blog ShysterBall. Maybe I'm easily impressed but that statement, which he used in his description of the Tigers-Indians game on the Hardball Times struck a chord with me, I thought it was a very good metaphor, particularly under the circumstances. There are 2,430 baseball games played ever season, and this man writes (usually) insightful blurbs about most of them. After a while you'd think he'd run out of things to say but he never does.
Not to get too tangental; the metaphor also happens to be true. To think, 3 years ago Willis was arguably the best pitcher in the league (22-10, 151 ERA+, 236 innings, 4th in VORP and he hit far better than any other contending pitcher). Admittedly his peripheral numbers suggested it couldn't last much longer, but I still thought he had a decent career ahead of him. I should have known better, because I heard the rumblings from the sabermetric community years before his implosion took place. And it echoed, the voices bounced around on the white walls of an empty room full of empty promises of future Cy Youngs and Hall of Fame speeches, or at the very least a couple more All-Star games. Voices that tried to convince you that putting all of your stock into that young lefty with the crazy wind-up was not such a good idea Voices that haunted me from the moment I became a baseball fan with two unforgettable words- Steve Avery.
Now I have to admit that I added the Steve Avery part to the title of this post...Steve Avery- that name brings back so many memories. Memories of those early Braves teams, say 1991 until their collapse in the 1996 World Series against the Yankees. It was when the Braves were still exciting. Steve Avery didn't represent their greatness, but he certainly represented the excitment I felt as a young kid just beginning to figure out the inner workings of this wonderful sport. Even as a kid in single digits I knew Steve would never be as good as Tom Glavine or John Smoltz, he didn't exude the same aura I guess. But I had a baseball card of his that showed its owner how to throw a curveball- it was my favorite card, even moreso than the Reggie Jackson card my aunt bought me. On one side it showed him in full out attack mode, unwinding in what I don't recall as the classic fluid lefty motion. The other side was a close up of his hand, holding a pristine ball on the seams, holding as naturally as if he'd been born with it in his hands. And it was all set against a jet black backdrop- man that was a cool card.
He was terrible in his rookie season at the age of 20. But he came out with two straight above average seasons in 1991 and 1992, at the ages of 21 and 22 to help the Braves win two straight pennants. At the age of 23 he was electric, having his best season and it looked like he was right in line to join the hallowed court of dominant Braves starters. (As an aside, I just want to mention how fuckin great the Braves rotations of the 90's were. Easily, easily the greatest in history, 3 Hall of Famers, including one of the 5 or 10 greatest pitchers of all time, a damn good Denny Neagle at times and for one year a young Steve Avery).
But it wasn't meant to be- the next three years he was right around average and in 1997 he pulled a Wil E. Coyote, falling off a cliff with an anvil in his hands. He hung on with Boston and Cincinnati for two more years was out of baseball after the 1999 season. He got another hot cop of coffee in 2003 with the Detroit Tigers, which he proceeded to pour all over himself. I lost that card a long time ago, it kinda faded into oblivion, much like Avery's career. He was special to me because of that card and because of 1993. He always had a special place in my collection.
Willis was my second hard fall for the proverbial flash in the pan. He was so much fun his rookie season. Because the way our athletes are brought up today, there will never be another Mark Fidrych, but Dontrelle was as close as I could ever get. He was inspiring, his unorthodox delivery, with the funky high leg kick, the sweeping arm motion, the wrap-around contortionist follow through. His smile was infectious, his enthusiasm almost alien to major league baseball. He loved to hit, he loved to run, he loved to slide head first, he was BLACK! He won the rookie of the year award, although Brandon Webb was demonstrably better that year (and has proven to be the better pitcher overall). But I watched him throw that 1 hit shutout against he Mets on June 16 of that year- it's completely irrational, but there was no way Brandon Webb was getting my vote. I mean, if I had one. He was basically average in 2004, but he came back with a vengeance in 2005. He placed second in Cy Young voting, lead the league in wins, and placed 4th in VORP behind otherwordly steroid abuser Roger Clemens, peak HGH usage Andy Petitte, and Cy Young award winner Chris Carpenter in the one season where he didn't crack like peanut brittle. He was tough luck above average in 2006, but the chinks were already appearing, particularly the increased wildness. He was terrible in 2007 and here we are in 2008. Now he's with the Tigers, got sent down to triple A, and couldn't find the strike zone with a telescope. It's not that he's deteriorated, it's the rapidness of it that gets to me, he was my great black pitching hero. Luckily I have CC Sabathia to hang my wishes on, and he's of course the real deal.
Flash in the pan. That's not entirely or even mostly fair of course, to Willis or Avery. They both had good seasons, they both have World Series rings, and I for one am always uneasy about labeling ballplayers and trying to extrapolate what they should have been. I mean, they are who they are, lefties with good arms who, because they couldn't blow the ball by hitters and didn't have superb command, were eventually figured out. They could still get lefties out, but damn if righties didn't tee off like Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines every time they came to the plate.
The similarities are pretty striking- Steve Avery is Dontrelle Willis' top comparable through age 25. They are both each others top comparable at the age of 24 and 25. Both left-handed, drafted when they were 18. Dontrelle Willis was much better as a rookie than Steve Avery. Dontrelle at his best (2005 and 2001) was better than Steve Avery at his best (1993, 1992). Steve Avery was probably more consistent over his best years. They both had their best seasons at age 23. Their stuff was a little bit different, Avery had the curve as his breaking pitch, Dontrelle used the slider. And finally, they both seem to be pretty much done by the age of 26. Sometimes, it's pretty tough to figure out what's gonna happen to a player, and sometimes the prediction is spot on. Hopefully, Dontrelle can come back, if not as a starting pitcher, then as a lefty specialist, his windup would still give southpaw hitters fits. Now if only we could revive vaudeville.
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