I don't get to watch nearly as much baseball as I'd like. Last year I had a subscription to listen to a lot of games on the radio and next year I plan on paying for the internet tv package, but as of now, I can only hope to watch the games broadcast on regular tv (Mets, ugh! and Yankees, double ugh!). I'm not too fanatical about any team really, in general I like watching good baseball. I primarily root for the Milwaukee Brewers (use to live there and family reasons) and Philadelphia Phillies (use to live there, and the first game I ever went to) although I do have some affinity for the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Rays are exciting. Anyway, I am excited because I will be making my first and almost certainly last trips to Shea and Yankees Stadiums on September 6 and 13 respectively. In honor of getting to watch two Saturday afternoon baseball games in New York I'm gonna do a blog on the various MVP races. Today I will do the AL as I see it.
Before I begin though I do want to say how I go through my MVP choices. The first thing I do is go over the list of people who are leading their league in VORP (Value over Replacement Player). It's basically what it sounds like, the value a player provides to you over what your so-called Quadruple A player could provide. VORP is a counting stat, so it takes into account not only how well someone has played but the amount of time they have played as well. After VORP, I take a look at WPA (win probability added), which as I explained before just takes the batter and says how much their actions have increased or decreased the probability that their team will win the game. I then look at various defensive stats, most notably, Revised Zone Rating, which tracks how well a player fields his zone with extra credit for out of zone plays (for catchers I use catching win shares because I haven't seen any other good stats to rate how catchers field). Finally, I check to see the standings of the players team. I know that a player cannot control how well his team is doing, he can only does his job. And if someone is so far ahead of the rest of the pack (Alex Rodriguez in 2007) I think they should be the MVP regardless. But in the case of really close races, I think the team success should be factored in.. it's not fair of course, but life ain't either.
1. Grady Sizemore CF Cleveland Indians- VORP 62 WPA 3.33 OPS .908
Not mentioned above is that he also plays a very good centerfield, has stolen 35 bases at almost a 90% clip, and has hit 31 homers and 32 doubles. After coming within one game of the World Series last year, the Indians have been incredibly disappointing, but they have gotten outstanding performances from two key players. They'll have a lot of retooling to do, but they should defnitely hold on to this man. Only a few centerfielders have been as good as him for this many years and he's just now hitting his prime
2. Dustin Pedroia 2b Boston Red Sox VORP 58 WPA 3.04 OPS .883
As of now the Red Sox have the inside track to the Wild Card which gives Pedroia, who has been scorching hot since mid-August, a nice shot at actually winning the award. He plays a very very nice second base and is the kind of "scrappy" (read small) player that sportswriters would love to give the MVP to if they ever put up the right numbers. Ellsbury got more of the hype last year, but Pedroia is a far better player.
3. Carlos Quentin RF Chicago White Sox VORP 50 WPA 3.89 OPS .965
If you haven't heard, Quentin broke his wrist and is almost certainly out for the remainder of the season, which is a devastating blow to the White Sox. He has been by far the best player on the team this year, Arizona has to be kicking themselves for letting him go as he leads the AL in homers (36) and has played a pretty good right field. His name has been floated extensively in the race for MVP up until now. He's still only 26 and plays at US Cellular so he'll have a shot at a few more home run crowns before he's through.
4. Justin Morneau 1b Minnesota Twins VORP 48 WPA 3.73 OPS .909
In my opinion, Morneau has been just as good or even slightly better this year than in his undeserved 2006 MVP campaign. The Twins have been a surprising team all year, which should garner some votes, and now that Carlos Quentin is out of the picture, he's the only RBI man on a contending team who will get serious consideration. He only has 22 home runs, which will hurt his cause, he's a lousy 1st baseman, and besides, Joe Mauer has been almost as good. I'd be less disappointed if he won it this year than in 2006 (Jeter was robbed).
5. Joe Mauer C Minnesota Twins VORP 45 WPA 3.95 OPS .858
Wouldn't it be great to be Joe Mauer, national football player of the year in high school as well as a baseball star, drafted number 1 overall by your hometown team, the best hitting and one of the best fielding catchers in baseball, good-looking. Damn, but anyway, he was much more valuable than Justin Morneau in 2006 and about as valuable this year. He may never find the power stroke everyone thought he'd have, but with patience like that a good receiver skills, he's gonna be a top 10 all-time catcher before it's all said and done.
Honorable Mentions
Alex Rodriguez 3b New York Yankees
Leads the league in VORP, but damn has he had a bad year in the clutch. His WPA is way below the league leaders. He's certainly not doing anything to prove the detractors wrong this year. Besides, the Yankees are disappointing. It's crazy how in an off year, he still is probably the best player in the league.
Josh Hamilton CF Texas Rangers
Everybody knows the story, he's "The Natural" incarnate, been to hell and back. He's also a damn good hitter and an okay fielder with a rifle for an arm. He's actually only 3rd on his team in VORP, which tells you just how good the Texas offense is. It also tells you just how bad their pitching has been. You can write those same two sentences nearly every year.
Aubrey Huff DH Baltimore Orioles
For some reason, I can't think of Huff as anything more than the good hitting catcher for the Devil Rays during those absolutely horrendous years (pretty much every year but this one). To me, he is the epitome of the good player languishing, having to go through the dog days without anything to play for but pride. Now he's an MVP candidate for a down and out franchise. Guess only one thing has changed. (sidenote, it's weird that Baltimore has three near MVP candidates as well, Huff, Brian Roberts, and Nick Markakis, if you could pair either one of these teams with Toronto)
Milton Bradley DH Texas Rangers
He's considerably toned down his antics, found a friend in Josh Hamilton, upped his walk rate, and has shown just how good a hitter he really is. My bias towards DH's is considerable, it's not that I hate the position, it's just that someone with no defensive value has to be far and above the league in hitting for them to be anything more than an also-ran in the MVP race, in my book.
Curtis Granderson CF Detroit Tigers
A very exciting and intelligent player. His blog is enjoyable and insightful, he's a decent centerfielder, he hits triples, and he's really learned how to hit. The Tigers are another disappointing team, but man what a find in this guy. His demeanor reminds me of Doug Glanville (former Phillies outfielder who graduated from UPenn), but he is a much better ball player. We really need more great black ballplayers like them in the league.
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